The Big Cycle

The big cycle, which is a pattern of rise and decline observed in empires over the past 500 years. The study covers the 10 most powerful empires and their reserve currencies, with a focus on the Dutch, British, American, and Chinese empires. The author measures the power of each empire using eight metrics, including education, innovation, economic output, military strength, and currency reserve status. The big cycle is composed of overlapping cycles lasting approximately 250 years with periods of conflict between transitions. The cycle typically begins after a major conflict, leading to a period of peace and prosperity. However, this prosperity leads to a financial bubble, uneven distribution of wealth, and eventually a decline in power. The cycle then starts anew with a rising power challenging the dominant one. The author examines the causes and effects of each stage and emphasizes the importance of understanding a country’s vital signs to anticipate its future trajectory.