How to Evaluate Your Investment Decisions

The speaker argues that investment decisions cannot be evaluated based on their outcomes as there is always an element of uncertainty. Instead, investment decisions should be evaluated at the time they are made based on the risk being taken and the expected outcome. The speaker also mentions that making a good investment decision doesn’t guarantee a good outcome and that the market risk has an associated risk premium. Even over 10-year periods, stocks have not always outperformed risk-free assets, leaving room for luck to influence the outcome.