The speaker emphasizes the importance of being cautious in financial decision-making and the need to consider base rates. They suggest that one should ask themselves if there is information that could change their mind when making a decision, but also recognize that there is a time-accuracy trade-off in decision-making. Options can expire, and there are opportunity costs to waiting. It is crucial to compare options relative to each other, including not doing anything, and think about the status quo as a separate option. The speaker notes that subjective judgments and luck can make it difficult to know how a decision will turn out.
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