The Importance Of Estimating Reasonable Outcomes Before You Make The Decision

In this conversation, the speaker discusses how to assign probabilities when making decisions. They use the example of hiring a candidate and valuing retention. The speaker explains that probabilistic forecasts are implicit in decision-making and can be made explicit to improve decision-making. They also use an example of guessing the weight of a piece of furniture to demonstrate that making an estimate is not the same as guessing and that it can provide useful information for decision-making.