The Paradox Of Experience

The speaker suggests that when making a decision, it is important to consider the probabilities of different outcomes based on base rates. This helps to avoid resulting, which occurs when people judge a decision based solely on its outcome. It is also helpful to reconstruct the state of knowledge at the time of the decision and determine what information was knowable beforehand. This can prevent the paradox of experience, where people take the wrong lessons from their experiences. Most of the time, it will be found that the information was not knowable beforehand, but occasionally it was and it can be further evaluated if it was affordable to act on it.