We post this for the purpose of somewhat-distilled counterperspectives only. Developments are not only unclear, ongoing, but – as so often repeated – politically driven; therefore carrying an additional layer of extreme unpredictability.
Buffett on Tariffs and Cash: Key Insights for Australian Investors
Warren Buffett has never been one to mince words, and his latest remarks—delivered during a CBS interview aired in early March—made clear he hasn’t softened with age. Speaking bluntly about former US President Donald Trump’s revived tariff proposals, Buffett characterised the plan as dangerously misguided and likely to backfire. The legendary investor described tariffs as “an act of war, to some degree,” warning of their inflationary consequences and burden on everyday consumers. “Over time, they are a tax on goods,” he said. “I mean, the tooth fairy doesn’t pay ’em.”
That sentiment will likely resonate with Australian investors, policymakers, and exporters alike. Australia’s economy relies heavily on international trade, and any shift towards global protectionism carries consequences well beyond US borders. As tensions between major economies simmer once again, Buffett’s comments serve as a timely reminder that tariffs, while politically attractive to some, come with very real economic costs.
But tariffs weren’t the only topic Buffett addressed in the CBS interview. He also revealed that Berkshire Hathaway has been leaning heavily into short-term US Treasury bills, a move many read as a sign of caution in the current market environment. It’s an interesting shift, particularly when viewed against Buffett’s longstanding aversion to cash as a long-term holding.
Indeed, in his latest letter to shareholders—released on 22 February 2025—Buffett reiterated his preference for equities over cash, even while sitting on a mountain of it. At the end of 2024, Berkshire Hathaway held approximately US$334 billion (around A$500 billion) in cash and equivalents, making up roughly 30% of the firm’s total assets. That is the highest level in over three decades, according to data from Oppenheimer.
Why so much cash? Part of the answer lies in the firm’s 2024 portfolio activity. Berkshire sold a net US$134 billion in stocks last year and scaled back its share buybacks, freeing up significant capital. While some interpreted the move as a defensive retreat, Buffett was quick to dispel that notion in his shareholder letter. “Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities,” he wrote. “That preference won’t change.”
He doubled down on the principle: “Berkshire will never favour ownership of cash-equivalent assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned.” The implication? Buffett isn’t abandoning equities—he simply hasn’t found the right opportunities to deploy capital at the scale Berkshire requires. The firm’s recent reductions in Apple and Bank of America holdings, two of its most prominent positions, speak to a broader sense of caution amid what he likely views as elevated valuations.
There was also a brief but intriguing moment during the CBS interview when Buffett was asked about Elon Musk’s potential involvement in a future Trump administration. Ever the diplomat, Buffett sidestepped the question, saying, “I better not get into that,” though he added, “I’ve talked to Elon a few times.” It was a throwaway line, but one that nonetheless drew attention, given the influence both men wield across business and markets.
For Australian investors, several insights emerge from these remarks. First, Buffett’s critique of protectionist policies underscores the risk such measures pose to open economies like Australia’s. Any further escalation in tariffs—especially involving China, a key Australian trading partner—could disrupt global supply chains, raise costs, and weigh on growth.
Second, Berkshire’s massive cash holdings, held in short-term Treasuries, signal that one of the world’s most successful investors currently sees limited value in the equity market—at least when it comes to large, meaningful purchases. That may be a cautionary signal for investors tempted to chase stocks amid rising valuations.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, Buffett’s strategy underscores a timeless lesson in investment discipline. Holding large amounts of cash isn’t an abandonment of conviction, but rather a strategic reserve—capital patiently waiting for the right opportunity. It’s a reminder that, in investing, sometimes doing nothing is the hardest and most prudent choice.
Putting Theory into Practice
Buffett’s recent interview and shareholder letter don’t just offer opinions—they model a clear investment philosophy rooted in patience, scepticism toward political headlines, and a willingness to hold back when valuations don’t stack up. Australian investors would do well to remember that strategy. Markets may be cyclical, but discipline, it seems, is evergreen.
Table: Summary of Key Statements
Source | Date | Topic | Key Statement |
---|---|---|---|
CBS Interview | March 2025 | Tariffs | Described as “an act of war”; “a tax on goods,” leading to higher prices. |
CBS Interview | March 2025 | Elon Musk Involvement | Deflected, said, “I’ve talked to Elon a few times.” |
CBS Interview | March 2025 | Cash Allocation | Mentioned building up investments in Treasury bills. |
Shareholder Letter 2025 | 22 Feb 2025 | Cash Allocation | “Majority remains in equities,” preference won’t change, awaiting opportunities. |
Howard Lutnick on Trump Tariffs, Trade Relations, China
- The primary objective of the new tariff policy is to compel companies to manufacture in America, boosting US GDP and employment (“build the American economy up”).
- The administration views past trade practices as an “exploitation of America,” positioning the US as the “world’s piggy bank,” which President Trump is determined to end.
- The focus is on rebalancing the $1.2 trillion trade deficit and addressing decades of US economic/worker pain (e.g., job/factory losses post-NAFTA).
- Baseline tariffs (10% for some like UK/AU, higher for others) and increased tariffs (e.g., 20% EU, 24% Japan, 34% China based on trade analysis) are set to begin April 5th and 9th respectively.
- Tariff levels were determined by CEA and USTR analysis of trade imbalances and barriers, not a simple formula.
- Even countries with trade surpluses (e.g., UK, Australia) face the baseline tariff, arguing surpluses are misleading (e.g., driven by specific commodities/financial flows) and reinforcing that all nations need the US market.
- Canada and Mexico are currently exempt under USMCA provisions, pending resolution of fentanyl/border issues, after which they’d fall into a similar tariff model. Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and Cuba are excluded due to existing sanctions.
- Emphasis is placed heavily on NTBs being the “monster that needs to be slayed,” often more significant than explicit tariffs.
- Examples cited include:
- VAT systems used to subsidize domestic production (e.g., European cars, steel).
- Regulatory barriers preventing US exports (e.g., beef, agricultural products, specific examples like proving potato origin for Korea).
- Subsidized energy costs for foreign producers.
- China: Faces compounded tariffs: 34% (trade imbalance) + 20% (Fentanyl precursor penalty) + potentially existing Section 301 tariffs (~25% on some goods), potentially reaching ~79% cumulative on certain items. The 20% Fentanyl penalty could be removed with a commitment from President Xi to stop precursor production.
- Europe: Criticized for higher tariffs (e.g., autos), significant NTBs (agriculture, VAT subsidies), and treating US products/companies unfairly despite being allies.
- The tariffs are presented as the start of a global “rebalancing,” not necessarily a traditional negotiation opening. The onus is on trading partners to address unfair practices (“deep soul searching”).
- Retaliation by trading partners is discouraged as illogical (“why retaliate against your biggest client?”). Tariffs could increase if retaliation occurs.
- Current market volatility (S&P down, USD weak) is acknowledged but downplayed relative to the long-term goal of strengthening the US domestic economy. The administration anticipates a US growth “resurgence.”
- Talks with trading partners are ongoing (“teams are talking”).