US Strikes on Iran: Market Reactions and Geopolitical Risks

Key Market Reactions and Geopolitical Implications

The US military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend have heightened geopolitical tensions, with markets reacting cautiously as investors await Iran’s response. Here’s a breakdown of the key developments and their implications:

Market Reactions

• Oil Prices: Brent crude surged as much as 5.7% early in the session on supply disruption fears, but gains pared to ~1.4% ($78/barrel). Focus remains on potential Iranian retaliation, including possible disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply).
• Equities: Risk-off sentiment prevailed, with European futures down ~0.5%, S&P 500 futures -0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures -0.4%. Defence stocks gained while tech underperformed.
• Dollar Strength: The USD rose 0.3%, benefiting from safe-haven flows. Gold, however, dipped 0.2% ($2,360/oz), counter to typical haven demand.
• Asian Markets: MSCI Asia-Pacific fell 1.1%, with airlines under pressure due to higher fuel costs.

Geopolitical Risks

• Iran’s Retaliation: Options include targeted strikes (e.g., US bases in Iraq), blocking the Strait of Hormuz (economically costly for Iran), or exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
• Nuclear Damage Assessment: US claims of “significant setbacks” to Iran’s uranium enrichment are unverified. Satellite imagery shows damage at Isfahan and Natanz sites, but 400kg of highly enriched uranium remains unaccounted for.
• Diplomatic Fallout: The EU called for de-escalation, while China faces US pressure to dissuade Iran from closing the Strait. Russia’s muted response suggests limited support for Iran.

Expert Insights

• Oil Market Stability: Analysts note the risk premium (~10% since mid-June) could fade unless Iran escalates. Tanker diversions (e.g., two supertankers avoiding Hormuz) are isolated so far.
• Central Bank Implications: Higher oil prices may delay Fed rate cuts if inflation rebounds. Wisdom Tree maintains a baseline of two 2024 cuts (September and December).
• Defence Sector: Aerospace and defence stocks (e.g., Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems) may benefit from prolonged tensions.

Actionable Takeaways

• Monitor Iranian rhetoric and shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz for oil price volatility.
• Defence and energy sectors may offer hedging opportunities amid escalating tensions.
• Dollar strength could persist short-term, but gold’s haven role may reassert if risks intensify.

The situation remains fluid, with markets likely to remain reactive to Iran’s next moves. Investors should prioritise liquidity and diversification in portfolios.